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IV

Max Est. MMI

M4.9 earthquake · shaking intensity by town 9 km N of Delta, B.C., MX

Magnitude4.9
Depth15.8 km
Time 2026-11-03T18:27:31.240000Z UTC: 2026-11-03T18:27:31.240000Z
USGS ID ci41572064
ShakeMap View USGS ↗

Engineering Ground Motion Parameters

GMPE predictions provide an independent check on the ShakeMap interpolated intensities above. ShakeMap relies on seismic station recordings; in areas with sparse station coverage — or for large teleseismic events and earthquakes outside dense West Coast networks — ShakeMap MMI can be inaccurate. A significant difference between ShakeMap and GMPE estimates is a signal that the ShakeMap result should be treated as preliminary. Also includes site Vs30 values and raw ground motion parameters (PGA/PGV).

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Est. Vs30 Values

Estimated shear-wave velocity in the upper 30 m used in GMPE calculations. Ref. column shows the 760 m/s rock-site reference for comparison.

Location Ref. (760 m/s) Est. Vs30 (m/s)
Nuevo León
MX
760 198
Ejido Saltillo
MX
760 205
Ejido Vicente Guerrero
MX
760 191
Delta
MX
760 190
Ejido Quintana Roo
MX
760 198
Ejido Toluca
MX
760 192
Estación Pescaderos
MX
760 186
Michoacán de Ocampo
MX
760 187
Ejido Jiquilpan
MX
760 190
Ejido Pátzcuaro
MX
760 198
Ejido Sinaloa
MX
760 180
Poblado Lázaro Cárdenas (La Veintiocho)
MX
760 207
Guadalupe Victoria
MX
760 190
Ejido Sonora
MX
760 190
Islas Agrarias Grupo B
MX
760 196
Puebla
MX
760 200
Islas Agrarias Grupo A
MX
760 189
Colonia Venustiano Carranza
MX
760 190
Doctor Alberto Oviedo Mota
MX
760 190
Ejido Durango
MX
760 190
Ejido Yucatán
MX
760 184
Tecolots
MX
760 180

MMI vs Distance — Default Vs30 (760 m/s)

All methods using the 760 m/s rock-site reference. ShakeMap values are independent of Vs30.

MMI vs distance — default Vs30

MMI vs Distance — Est. Vs30

GMPEs use the Est. Vs30 values shown in the table above. ShakeMap values are independent of Vs30.

MMI vs distance — Est. Vs30

GMPE Residual — Observed − Predicted MMI

Signed residual at each seismic station. Positive values mean the GMPE underestimated shaking; negative values mean it overestimated. The dashed line at zero indicates perfect agreement.

GMPE residual plot

GMPE Predicted vs. Observed MMI at Seismic Stations

Each point is one seismic station. Points on the dashed 1:1 line indicate perfect agreement; above the line = GMPE underestimated shaking; below = overestimated.

GMPE predicted vs observed scatter

GMPE Performance — Station Observations

Statistics computed by comparing each GMPE's predicted MMI against ShakeMap observed MMI at seismic stations. Bias = mean(observed − predicted). Lower RMSE indicates better overall agreement with instrumental measurements.

GMPE Bias Sigma RMSE
ASK14 -0.62 0.44 0.76
BSSA14 -0.36 0.36 0.51
CY14 -0.46 0.38 0.60
CB14 -0.64 0.38 0.74
Bias > 0: GMPE underestimated shaking at stations. Bias < 0: GMPE overestimated shaking.

Peak Ground Motion — Seismic Station Observations

Recorded PGA and PGV at seismic stations, sorted by highest PGA. Top 25 stations shown. MMI (PGA) and MMI (PGV) are independent conversions via Worden et al. (2012) GMICE.

Station PGA (g) MMI (PGA) PGV (cm/s) MMI (PGV)
CERRO PRIETO (BC.CPX) 0.1767 Strong(VI) 0.970 Weak(III)
Ejido Yucatan (BC.YUC2X) 0.0559 Light(IV) 1.427 Light(IV)
Guadalupe Victoria (BC.GUVIX) 0.0489 Light(IV) 2.572 Light(IV)
Bonds Corner, Omlin Residence (NP.5054) 0.0405 Light(IV) 1.939 Light(IV)
Ejido Aguascalientes (BC.AGSX) 0.0376 Light(IV) 2.899 Light(IV)
Schaffner Ranch (CI.SNR) 0.0277 Light(IV) 1.807 Light(IV)
El Centro Array 11, McCabe School (NP.5058) 0.0256 Light(IV) 0.998 Weak(III)
Desert Research Extended Center (CI.DRE) 0.0232 Weak(III) 2.248 Light(IV)
UABC Campus Mexicali (BC.UABX) 0.0191 Weak(III) 0.982 Weak(III)
East Mesa (CI.EMS) 0.0177 Weak(III) 0.433 Weak(III)
El Centro (CI.ELO) 0.0161 Weak(III) 0.807 Weak(III)
Fire Station (NP.5053) 0.0112 Weak(III) 0.680 Weak(III)
Midway Well (NP.5272) 0.0095 Weak(III) 0.304 Weak(III)
American Girl Mine (CI.AGM) 0.0092 Weak(III) 0.252 Weak(II)
Imperial (CI.IMP) 0.0091 Weak(III) 0.562 Weak(III)
El Centro Array 1, Borchard Ranches (NP.5056) 0.0087 Weak(III) 0.777 Weak(III)
Coachella (CI.COA) 0.0086 Weak(III) 0.561 Weak(III)
Ocotillo Community Park (CI.OCP) 0.0077 Weak(III) 0.256 Weak(II)
Cook Ranch 2 (CI.COK2) 0.0071 Weak(III) 0.308 Weak(III)
Bombay Beach (CI.BOM) 0.0062 Weak(III) 0.164 Weak(II)
Signal Mtn (CI.SGL) 0.0045 Weak(II) 0.246 Weak(II)
Ruthven (CI.RUN) 0.0044 Weak(II) 0.254 Weak(II)
Camino Del Diablo (CI.CDD) 0.0037 Weak(II) 0.064 Weak(II)
Rancho Alamar- (BC.ALAMX) 0.0028 Weak(II) 0.193 Weak(II)
Calipatria 2 (CI.CLI2) 0.0027 Weak(II) 0.247 Weak(II)
Source: USGS ShakeMap station recordings (view ShakeMap). PGA in g (fraction of gravitational acceleration); PGV in cm/s. The observed MMI shown on the map uses ShakeMap's reported instrumental intensity where available, or max(MMI from PGA, MMI from PGV) otherwise.

Seismic Station Observed MMI

MMI values are derived directly from observed ground motion measurements at seismic stations and are not spatially interpolated.

6 stations
Station MMI Description
Ejido Aguascalientes (BC.AGSX) Light(IV)
Desert Research Extended Center (CI.DRE) Light(IV)
Guadalupe Victoria (BC.GUVIX) Light(IV)
Bonds Corner, Omlin Residence (NP.5054) Light(IV)
Schaffner Ranch (CI.SNR) Light(IV)
Ejido Yucatan (BC.YUC2X) Light(IV)